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(2023): Economic geography aspects of the Panama Canal Oxford Economic Papers. Oxford University Press (OUP). 2023, 75(1), pp. 142-162. ISSN 0030-7653. eISSN 1464-3812. Available under: doi: 10.1093/oep/gpac009
This paper studies how the opening of the Panama Canal in 1914 changed counties’ market potential and influenced the economic geography of the USA. We compute shipment effective distances with and without the canal from each US county to each other US county and to international ports and compute the resulting change in market potential. The main elasticity would imply that a 1% increase in market potential led to a total increase of population by around 2.3% in 1940. We compute similar elasticities for wages, land values, and immigration from out of state. Tradable (manufacturing) industries react stronger than non-tradable (services) industries.
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(2023): Do Role Models Matter in Large Classes? : New Evidence on Gender Match Effects in Higher Education
We study whether female students benefit from being taught by female professors, and whether such gender match effects differ by class size. We use administrative records of a German public university, covering all programs and courses between 2006 and 2018. We find that gender match effects on student performance are sizable in smaller classes, but do not exist in larger classes. This difference suggests that direct and frequent interactions between students and professors are important for the emergence of gender match effects. Instead, the mere fact that one’s professor is female is not sufficient to increase performance of female students.
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(2023): Policy signals in party communication : explaining positional concreteness in parties’ Facebook posts West European Politics. Routledge, Taylor & Francis Group. 2023, 46(5), pp. 971-994. ISSN 0140-2382. eISSN 1743-9655. Available under: doi: 10.1080/01402382.2022.2085952
Policy signals are often conceived of as positions on an ideological scale. However, apart from the position – considered here as the policy objective – the policy instrument and the concreteness of the instrument must also be taken into consideration. In the article, a new conceptualisation of policy signals is developed, which integrates policy objectives, policy instruments and how concrete these are. Drawing on issue competition research, a set of expectations is advanced about the importance of actors’ control over outcomes for positional concreteness. Then, policy signals are looked at in the unmediated context of Danish parties’ Facebook posts ahead of the 2019 national election. Based on all textual and audio-visual posts in the year before the election, it is found that the levels of positional concreteness are generally high. Yet – in line with expectations – positional concreteness depends on parties’ incumbency status and the policy field.
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(2023): Towards a More In-Depth Detection of Political Framing DEGAETANO-ORTLIEB, Stefania, ed., Anna KAZANTSEVA, ed., Nils REITER, ed. and others. The 7th Joint SIGHUM Workshop on Computational Linguistics for Cultural Heritage, Social Sciences, Humanities and Literature : Proceedings of LaTeCH-CLfL 2023. Stroudsburg, PA: Association for Computational Linguistics (ACL), 2023, pp. 162-174. ISBN 978-1-959429-54-8. Available under: doi: 10.18653/v1/2023.latechclfl-1.18
In social sciences, recent years have witnessed a growing interest in applying NLP approaches to automatically detect framing in political discourse. However, most NLP studies by now focus heavily on framing effect arising from topic coverage, whereas framing effect arising from subtle usage of linguistic devices remains understudied. In a collaboration with political science researchers, we intend to investigate framing strategies in German newspaper articles on the “European Refugee Crisis”. With the goal of a more in-depth framing analysis, we not only incorporate lexical cues for shallow topic-related framing, but also propose and operationalize a variety of framing-relevant semantic and pragmatic devices, which are theoretically derived from linguistics and political science research. We demonstrate the influential role of these linguistic devices with a large-scale quantitative analysis, bringing novel insights into the linguistic properties of framing.
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Women are more likely to work in jobs with low hours than men. Low-hour jobs are associated with lower hourly wages and are more likely impacted by minimum wages that set a floor on hourly wages. We document that the first German minimum wage significantly increased women’s transition towards jobs with higher weekly hours. We construct and estimate an equilibrium search model with demographic and firm productivity heterogeneity. The model replicates observed gender gaps in employment, hours and wage and the positive relationship between hours and hourly wages. We implement the minimum wage in our model with a penalty to address non-compliance. Based on our model, the minimum wage primarily reduces the gender income gap through the gender wage gap. At its 2022 level, the German minimum wage reduces the gender employment and hours gap due to an upward reallocation effect, resulting in women’s increased participation in higher-hour jobs with lower separation rates. The upward reallocation effect is the strongest for women with children and varies by marital state and spousal income. While the minimum wage only modestly discourages firms from posting jobs, it shifts job offers toward full-time positions.
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Der Bericht basiert auf der bundesweiten Befragungsstudie "Die Studierendenbefragung in Deutschland" (SiD), in der drei bislang unabhängige große Langzeiterhebungen unter Studierenden zusammengeführt wurden: die "Sozialerhebung", der "Studierendensurvey" und "best – Studieren mit einer gesundheitlichen Beeinträchtigung". Im Befragungszeitraum 2021 haben mehr als 180.000 Studierende von 250 Hochschulen teilgenommen. Bei der Befragung 2021 konnten die vielfältigen Erfahrungen und Einschätzungen der Studierenden inmitten des dritten Pandemiesemesters erfasst werden. In diesem von der AG Hochschulforschung der Universität Konstanz verfassten und von dem BMBF finanzierten Bericht werden Aspekte der Digitalisierung an deutschen Hochschulen und die Erfahrungen der Studierenden mit der Onlinelehre untersucht. Im Mittelpunkt stehen dabei die folgenden vier Schwerpunkte zur Studiensituation: die soziale Integration, Lernumwelten, Studienerfolg und Abbruchintentionen sowie erlebte Schwierigkeiten.
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(2023): Can policies improve language vitality? : The Sámi languages in Sweden and Norway Frontiers in Psychology. Frontiers. 2023, 14, 1059696. eISSN 1664-1078. Available under: doi: 10.3389/fpsyg.2023.1059696
Introduction: Language policies are often aimed at changing language behaviours, yet it is notoriously difficult to assess their effects. This study investigates language use and competence in the Indigenous Sámi populations of Norway and Sweden in light of the national-level policies the two countries have adopted.
Methods: We provide a cross-country comparison of relevant educational, linguistic and budgetary policies in Sweden and Norway. Next, we present novel data from a survey with 5,416 Sámi and non-Sámi participants in 20 northern municipalities, examining Sámi language use and proficiencies across generations and contexts. Lexical proficiency in North Sámi was tested in a small subset of participants.
Results: Sámi language use has dropped considerably over the past three generations. Only a small proportion of Sámi are highly fluent and use a Sámi language with their children (around 4% in Sweden and 11% in Norway). One fifth of Sámi adults use a Sámi language at least ‘occasionally’, and use is most common in the home context. Sámi language knowledge remains negligible in the majority population.
Discussion: The higher levels of language use and proficiency in Norway seem at least in part to reflect the more favourable policies adopted there. In both countries, more work is needed to increase speaker numbers, also in the majority population.
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(2023): Hohe Zustimmung zu bedingungslosem Grundeinkommen – vor allem bei den möglichen Profiteur*innen DIW-Wochenbericht. Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung. 2023, 2023(21), pp. 246-254. ISSN 0012-1304. eISSN 1860-8787. Available under: doi: 10.18723/diw_wb:2023-21-1
dc.title:
dc.contributor.author: Schupp, Jürgen
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(2023): Politicians and Scandals that Damage the Party Brand Legislative Studies Quarterly. Wiley. 2023, 48(2), pp. 305-331. ISSN 0362-9805. eISSN 1939-9162. Available under: doi: 10.1111/lsq.12377
Scandals can cause serious damage to political parties’ brand name and reputation, which may taint all members of the party—even those not implicated in the scandal. In this article, we therefore explore how (uninvolved) politicians are likely to react to the eruption of such events. Building on a survey among UK local councilors (N = 2133), we first document the prevalence of distinct response strategies (such as distancing oneself from the scandal-hit party or redirecting attention to similar events in other parties). Then, building on a between-subject survey-experimental design, we assess the moderating roles of partisanship and scandal type. We show that a scandal in one’s own party reduces the probability of distancing oneself from the scandal-hit party (particularly among men). We also find that scandal type matters: pointing out similar scandals in other parties is less likely for sex scandals compared to financial scandals (particularly among women).
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(2023): The paternalist politics of punitive and enabling workfare : evidence from a new dataset on workfare reforms in 16 countries, 1980–2015 Socio-Economic Review. Oxford University Press. 2023, 21(4), pp. 2137-2166. ISSN 1475-1461. eISSN 1475-147X. Available under: doi: 10.1093/ser/mwac060
Does neoliberalism lie behind the increased use of social policy to control and incentivize labour market behaviour? We argue that this assumed connection is theoretically weak and empirically inaccurate, and we point to an alternative explanation centred on government paternalism. Using a new comparative dataset on workfare reforms, we first describe how the overall balance of punitive and enabling demands placed on the unemployed has changed across 16 countries between 1980 and 2015. We observe a growing number of workfare reforms, modestly tilted towards the punitive side—but without a broad shift towards punitive workfare. We then assess the drivers of policy intervention, finding that government paternalism, rather than neoliberalism, helps us to understand which governments enact enabling and punitive measures. In line with our broader argument, we suggest that this reflects the moral (rather than economic) foundations of social policy.
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This paper studies the aggregate and distributional effects of raising the top marginal income tax rate in the presence of tax avoidance. To this end, we develop a quantitative macroeconomic model with heterogeneous agents and occupational choice in which entrepreneurs can avoid taxes in two ways. On the extensive margin, entrepreneurs can choose the legal form of their business organization to reduce their tax burden. On the intensive margin, entrepreneurs can shift their income between different tax bases. In a quantitative application to the US economy, we find that tax avoidance lowers productive efficiency, generates sizable welfare losses, and reduces the effectiveness of the top marginal tax rate at lowering inequality. Tax avoidance reduces the optimal top marginal income tax rate from 47 % to 43 %.
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(2023): Moving on up? : How Social Origins Shape Geographic Mobility within Britain’s Higher Managerial and Professional Occupations Sociology. Sage. 2023, 57(3), pp. 659-681. ISSN 0038-0385. eISSN 1469-8684. Available under: doi: 10.1177/00380385221113669
This article presents the first longitudinal analysis of social and geographic mobility into Britain’s higher managerial and professional occupations. Using linked census records from the Office for National Statistics Longitudinal Study, we find that those from advantaged social origins are substantially more likely to make long-distance residential moves, implying that geographic mobility is a correlate of advantaged social origins rather than a determinant of an advantaged adult class position. Among higher managers and professionals, those with advantaged backgrounds lived in more affluent areas as children than those from disadvantaged backgrounds. This ‘area gap’ persists during adulthood: when the upwardly mobile move, they are unable to close the gap to their peers with privileged backgrounds in terms of the affluence of the areas they live in: they face a moving target. Geographic advantage, and disadvantage, thus lingers with individuals, even if they move.
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(2023): Softening the corrective effect of populism : populist parties’ impact on political interest West European Politics. Taylor & Francis. 2023, 46(4), pp. 760-787. ISSN 0140-2382. eISSN 1743-9655. Available under: doi: 10.1080/01402382.2022.2089963
dc.title:
dc.contributor.author: Nemčok, Miroslav; Bosancianu, Constantin Manuel; Kluknavská, Alena
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(2023): Why Globalization Hardly Affects Education Systems : A Historical Institutionalist View MATTEI, Paola, ed., Xavier DUMAY, ed., Éric MANGEZ, ed., Jacqueline BEHREND, ed.. The Oxford Handbook of Education and Globalization. New York, NY: Oxford University Press, 2023, pp. 554-C26P159. ISBN 978-0-19-757068-5. Available under: doi: 10.1093/oxfordhb/9780197570685.013.24
Many scholars and observers have assumed that globalization triggers convergence in many areas, including education policy and systems. Yet, while some change has happened, the central elements of countries’ education systems have been relatively unaffected by globalization. This chapter explains this inertia, pointing at the politics of education. Taking a historical institutionalist perspective, the chapter shows that education systems have created positive feedback effects generating path dependencies which make education systems increasingly resilient to change. A review and discussion of recent research underpin this reasoning, identifying three mechanisms, through public opinion, interest groups, and political elites, respectively.
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Data from the new wave of the Konstanz Inequality Barometer shows that people in Germany perceive a widespread increase of inequality in income and wealth and barely distinguish between income and wealth inequality. This is despite the fact that wealth inequality is significantly larger than income inequality. At the same time, the actual level of inequality is still underestimated in some respects. Concerning the prospects of the younger generation, many people, especially supporters of the right-wing populist AfD, are rather negative. Less pessimism is found among supporters of the center-right parties, CDU/CSU and FDP.
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(2023): Dealing with Technological Change : Social Policy Preferences and Institutional Context Comparative Political Studies. Sage Publications. 2023, 56(7), pp. 968-999. ISSN 0010-4140. eISSN 1552-3829. Available under: doi: 10.1177/00104140221139381
How does technological change affect social policy preferences across different institutional contexts? In this paper, we argue that individuals who perceive high levels of technology-related employment risks prefer passive policies like unemployment benefits over active measures like retraining in order to satisfy the need for immediate compensation in the case of job loss. At the same time, general support for passive (active) policy solutions to technological change should be significantly lower (higher) in countries where generous compensation schemes already exist. As the perception of technology-related employment risks increases, however, we expect that social policy preferences among high-risk individuals should converge across different welfare state contexts. We use novel data from a diverse set of 24 OECD countries that specifically measure preferred social policy solutions to technological change in a constrained choice scenario. Applying statistical methods that explicitly model the trade-off faced by individuals, we find evidence in line with our theoretical expectations.
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Die Entfernungspauschale ist beliebt als Instrument zur Senkung
der eigenen Steuerlast. Dabei ist sie doppelt problematisch: Sie
verstärkt die Verteilungsungleichheit und wirkt sich negativ auf
Umwelt und Klima aus. In diesem Policy Paper zeigen wir, dass
diese Zusammenhänge häufig nicht richtig wahrgenommen
werden. Erhalten Bürger*innen jedoch objektive Informationen
über die Verteilungs- und Umweltwirkungen, so erhöht dies ihre
Zustimmung zu Vorschlägen für eine Reform der Pauschale. Eine
solche Wahrnehmungskorrektur könnte ein Hebel sein, um die
Unterstützung für eine Reform zu erhöhen und die Entfernungspauschale
sozial wie ökologisch nachhaltiger zu gestalten.
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This paper studies how distributional and electoral concerns shape sovereign default incentives within a quantitative model of sovereign debt with heterogeneous agents and non-linear income taxation. The small open economy is characterized by a two-party system in which the left-wing party has a larger preference for redistribution than the right-wing party. Political turnover is the endogenous outcome of the electoral process. Fiscal policy faces a tradeoff: On the one hand, the government has incentives to finance redistribution via external debt to avoid distortionary income taxation. On the other hand, the accumulation of external debt raises the cost of borrowing. Quantitative findings suggest that the left-wing party implements a more progressive income tax, is more prone to default, and has a lower electoral support than the right-wing party due to worse borrowing conditions and the distortionary effects of income taxation. In equilibrium, electoral uncertainty raises sovereign default risk.
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(2023): The Best of both Worlds : Social and Technical Challenges of Creating Energy Islands KLEIN, Cornel, ed., Matthias JARKE, ed.. Proceedings of the 12th International Conference on Smart Cities and Green ICT Systems. Setúbal, Portugal: SCITEPRESS - Science and Technology Publications, 2023, pp. 129-136. ISSN 2184-4968. ISBN 978-989-758-651-4. Available under: doi: 10.5220/0011974600003491
Creating so-called “energy islands” with a high level of energetic self-sufficiency is one strategy to fight climate crisis. To become a realistic goal, such a concept needs trans-disciplinary research that defines promising transformation paths towards reaching this vision. The presented paper introduces a conceptual framework that provides approaches for technical optimization across all energy vectors, socio-technical optimization of the usage of energy demand flexibility, socio-psychological interventions, and a replication strategy that considers all these different aspects. The focus lies on the architecture of a management system that answers requirements also from social sciences, on engagement strategies and on defining a cross-vector, cross-disciplinary design for flexibility in terms of demand-response schemes.
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(2023): Shine Bright Like a Diamond : When Signaling Creates Glass Cliffs for Female Executives Journal of Management. Sage Publications. 2023, 49(3), pp. 1005-1036. ISSN 0149-2063. eISSN 1557-1211. Available under: doi: 10.1177/01492063211067518
There is mixed support for the glass cliff hypothesis that firms will more likely appoint female candidates into top management positions when in crisis. We trace the inconsistent findings back to an underdeveloped theoretical link and deficient identification strategies. Using signaling theory, we suggest that crisis firms appoint female top managers to signal change to the market and argue that the effect is context-dependent. In a field study of 26,156 executive appointments in U.S. firms between 2000 and 2016, we exploit a regression discontinuity to test for the causal impact of firm crisis status on the likelihood of female top management appointments and for moderators of the effect. We find that crisis status leads to a significant increase in female top management appointments and that crisis (vs. noncrisis) firms are more likely to frame female appointments as change-related in press releases. Importantly, the presence of the glass cliff effect hinges on attributes of the signaler (absence of another female executive), signal (appointment type), and receiver (investor attention). The findings robustly evidence the glass cliff and our theoretical extensions.
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