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  • Cadsby, C. Bram; Song, Fei; Zubanov, Nick (2024): Working more for more and working more for less : Labor supply in the gain and loss domains Labour Economics. Elsevier. 2024, 88, 102533. ISSN 0927-5371. eISSN 1879-1034. Available under: doi: 10.1016/j.labeco.2024.102533

    Working more for more and working more for less : Labor supply in the gain and loss domains

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    We examine labor supply responses to piece rate changes relative to the reference piece rate (RR). In experimental conditions without RR, labor supply increases monotonically with the actual piece rate. In conditions with RR, labor supply increases both when the piece rate rises and falls relative to RR. This non-monotonicity in labor supply responses to piece rate changes around RR is consistent with the effects of framing a given level of income as gain or loss relative to the target level induced by RR: loss aversion makes subjects work more at a given piece rate when the implied income is in the loss rather than gain domain. However, the framing effects disappear when the piece rate could both rise or fall relative to RR.

  • Ulloa, Roberto; Richter, Ana Carolina; Makhortykh, Mykola; Urman, Aleksandra; Kacperski, Celina (2024): Representativeness and face-ism : Gender bias in image search New Media and Society. Sage. 2024, 26(6), S. 3541-3567. ISSN 1461-4448. eISSN 1461-7315. Verfügbar unter: doi: 10.1177/14614448221100699

    Representativeness and face-ism : Gender bias in image search

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    Implicit and explicit gender biases in media representations of individuals have long existed. Women are less likely to be represented in gender-neutral media content (representation bias), and their face-to-body ratio in images is often lower (face-ism bias). In this article, we look at representativeness and face-ism in search engine image results. We systematically queried four search engines (Google, Bing, Baidu, Yandex) from three locations, using two browsers and in two waves, with gender-neutral (person, intelligent person) and gendered (woman, intelligent woman, man, intelligent man) terminology, accessing the top 100 image results. We employed automatic identification for the individual’s gender expression (female/male) and the calculation of the face-to-body ratio of individuals depicted. We find that, as in other forms of media, search engine images perpetuate biases to the detriment of women, confirming the existence of the representation and face-ism biases. In-depth algorithmic debiasing with a specific focus on gender bias is overdue.

  • Information Provision and Support for Inheritance Taxation : Evidence from a Representative Survey Experiment in Germany

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  • Ahrens, Leo (2024): The quality of government conditions political disagreement over redistributive policies Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties. Taylor & Francis. ISSN 1745-7289. eISSN 1745-7297. Verfügbar unter: doi: 10.1080/17457289.2024.2352451

    The quality of government conditions political disagreement over redistributive policies

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    This study argues that the quality of government structures the divide of public opinion on redistribution within countries. Countries with higher government quality have both the capacity and impartiality required to implement effective and fair redistribution. In effect, material self-interest and fairness-based evaluations should become better predictors of policy preferences in countries with higher government quality. An empirical analysis of survey data from 40 institutionally diverse countries supports this theory. Interaction regression models show that the government quality moderates the effects of income and unfairness perceptions on redistribution preferences. Both preference drivers are more strongly associated with redistribution support in countries with higher government quality. Preferences thereby become more heterogeneous in higher-quality settings. The results offer micro-level support for the theory that government quality structures politics and policies via the public opinion channel. To the extent that public opinion influences political behavior and policymaking, higher government quality should induce a stronger economic left-right divide over these political phenomena.

  • Horn, Alexander; Kohl, Sebastian (2024): Beyond trade-offs : Exploring the changing interplay of public and private welfare provision in old age and health in the historical long-run Journal of European Social Policy. Sage. ISSN 0958-9287. eISSN 1461-7269. Available under: doi: 10.1177/09589287241245656

    Beyond trade-offs : Exploring the changing interplay of public and private welfare provision in old age and health in the historical long-run

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    Modern welfare states compete with private providers of welfare in offering economic security. This is most evident in the case of pensions competing with life insurance and private pensions as well as of public health insurance competing with private insurance providers. The common view of this public–private relationship is one of a trade-off: longitudinally, political scientists describe how retrenchment was pushed by privatized welfare, whereas economists trace the crowding-out of private to public welfare provisions. Cross-sectionally, they claim that countries have lower public spending levels because they have a large private sector. We suggest a more nuanced view. Drawing on a new long-run panel data of public pension and private life insurance expenditures and contributions in 20 OECD countries since Bismarck to the current day, we show that in the postwar years a cross-sectional trade-off emerged, which then faded. Longitudinally, complementary relationships of public and private provision growth have become the norm. We argue theoretically and show empirically that trade-offs only occur if governments still hold (waning) anti-interventionist and pro-market views.

  • Eckhard, Steffen; Jankauskas, Vytautas; Leuschner, Elena (2024): Institutional Design and Biases in Evaluation Reports by International Organizations Public Administration Review. Wiley. 2024, 84(3), pp. 560-573. ISSN 0033-3352. eISSN 1540-6210. Available under: doi: 10.1111/puar.13705

    Institutional Design and Biases in Evaluation Reports by International Organizations

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    Governments spend hundreds of millions on evaluations to assess the performance of public organizations. In this article, we scrutinize whether variation in the institutional design of evaluation systems leads to biases in evaluation findings. Biases may emerge because influence over evaluation processes could enable the bureaucracy to present its work in a more positive way. We study evaluation reports published by nine international organizations (IOs) of the United Nations system. We employ deep learning to measure the share of positive assessments at the sentence level per evaluation report as a proxy for the positivity of evaluation results. Analyzing 1082 evaluation reports, we find that reports commissioned by operative units, as compared to central evaluation units, systematically contain more positive assessments. Theoretically, this link between institutional design choices and evaluation outcomes may explain why policy-makers perceive similar tools for evidence-based policy making as functional in some organizations, and politicized in others.

  • Schönhage, Nanna Lauritz; Bækgaard, Martin; Geys, Benny (2024): The politics of distributing blame and credit : Evidence from a survey experiment with Norwegian local politicians European Journal of Political Research. Wiley. 2024, 63(2), pp. 599-620. ISSN 0304-4130. eISSN 1475-6765. Available under: doi: 10.1111/1475-6765.12610

    The politics of distributing blame and credit : Evidence from a survey experiment with Norwegian local politicians

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    How do politicians attribute responsibility for good and poor policy outcomes across multiple stakeholders in a policy field where they themselves can affect service provision? Such ‘diffusion’ decisions are crucial to understand the political calculations underlying the allocation of blame and credit by office-holders. We study this issue using a between-subjects survey experiment fielded among local politicians in Norway (N = 1073). We find that local politicians attribute responsibility for outcomes in primary education predominantly to school personnel (regardless of whether performance is good or bad) and do not engage in local party-political blame games. However, we show that local politicians are keen to attribute responsibility for poor outcomes to higher levels of government, especially when these are unaligned with the party of the respondent. These findings suggest that vertical partisan blame-shifting prevails over horizontal partisan blame games in settings with a political consensus culture.

  • Yasar, Rusen; Bergmann, Fabian; Lloyd-Smith, Anika; Schmid, Sven-Patrick; Holzinger, Katharina; Kupisch, Tanja (2024): Experience of discrimination in egalitarian societies : the Sámi and majority populations in Sweden and Norway Ethnic and Racial Studies. Taylor & Francis. 2024, 47(6), pp. 1203-1230. ISSN 0141-9870. eISSN 1466-4356. Available under: doi: 10.1080/01419870.2023.2243313

    Project : “Ethnic policies” – remedy for between-group inequalities?

    Experience of discrimination in egalitarian societies : the Sámi and majority populations in Sweden and Norway

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    The Sámi people stand out as the only Indigenous minority in an egalitarian European context, namely the Nordic Countries. Therefore, inequalities that they may face are worth closer inspection. Drawing on the distinction between inequalities among individuals (vertical) and between groups (horizontal), we investigate how different types of inequalities affect the Sámi today. We formulate a series of hypotheses on how social, economic, cultural, and political inequalities are linked with discrimination experience, and test these with original data from a population survey conducted in northern Norway and northern Sweden simultaneously in 2021. The findings show that Sámi ethnic background increases the probability of experiencing discrimination. While individual-level economic inequality is also pertinent, this does not directly materialise as between-group inequality. Instead, minority language use is a strong predictor of discrimination experience, revealing the socio-cultural nature of ethnic inequalities. Cross-country differences are only reflected in the effect of minority language use.

  • de Blok, Lisanne; Heermann, Max; Schüssler, Julian; Leuffen, Dirk; de Vries, Catherine E. (2024): All on board? The role of institutional design for public support for differentiated integration European Union Politics. Sage. ISSN 1465-1165. eISSN 1741-2757. Available under: doi: 10.1177/14651165241246384

    All on board? The role of institutional design for public support for differentiated integration

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    Differentiated integration is often considered a solution to gridlock in the European Union. However, questions remain concerning its perceived legitimacy among the public. While research shows that most citizens are not, in principle, opposed to differentiated integration – although support varies across different differentiated integration models and different country contexts – we still know little about the role institutional design plays in citizens’ evaluations of differentiated integration. This article inspects how citizens evaluate different hypothetical differentiated integration arrangements, with varying decision-making procedures, using a conjoint experiment. We ask whether institutional arrangements can overcome citizens’ preference heterogeneity over differentiated integration, and thereby foster the legitimacy of a differentiated European Union. We find that while a majority of citizens care about the inclusiveness of differentiated integration arrangements, they also support limiting the number of veto points. Our analysis also reveals noteworthy differences across citizens with pro- and anti-European Union attitudes in the perceived fairness of differentiated integration arrangements.

  • Diehl, Claudia; Trittler, Sabine (2024): Highly skilled and highly skeptical? : How education and origin shape newcomers’ relationship with their new home Journal of Ethnic and Migration Studies. Taylor & Francis. 2024, 50(7), pp. 1777-1802. ISSN 1369-183X. eISSN 1469-9451. Available under: doi: 10.1080/1369183X.2024.2315356

    Project : Aktuelle Zuzugsprozesse und frühe Integrationsverläufe in Deutschland

    Highly skilled and highly skeptical? : How education and origin shape newcomers’ relationship with their new home

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    This article explores how level of education and region of origin (EU versus non-EU) shape newcomers’ perceptions of being welcome and treated fairly upon arrival, as well as their feelings of closeness and belonging to majority members and their long-term commitment to their new country of residence. Our results show that the impact of these factors – education and EU background – varies between these dimensions in shaping individuals’ attitudes and feelings about their new home. Feelings of being welcome and treated fairly do not differ much between origin groups per se, but they do differ between highly skilled and less-skilled migrants, although in a paradoxical way. Skilled third-country nationals are more skeptical than individuals with lower levels of education, and they are also more likely to feel marginalized. As regards the other dimensions, origin clearly trumps education. Although EU migrants are not particularly skeptical about Germany, they feel less close to it and more hesitant to make a long-term commitment to the country. Our analysis shows that skilled migrants do not relate in a consistent or homogeneous way to their destination country.

  • Je immigrationsskeptischer die Bevölkerung, desto restriktiver sind die BAMF-Entscheidungen

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    Der Begriff der Asyllotterie beschreibt die für den Rechtsstaat bedenkliche Tendenz, dass die Schutzquoten für Asylsuchende regional und zeitlich stark variieren. Doch mit den verwendeten Aggregatdaten für einzelne Bundesländer lässt sich nicht belegen, dass sich die Erfolgsaussichten für Geflüchtete mit einem ähnlich glaubwürdigen Gesuch und vergleichbarem Hintergrund systematisch unterscheiden. Eine Auswertung der IAB-BAMF-SOEP–Flüchtlingsbefragung geht nun über die Makrobefunde der bisherigen Literatur hinaus und zeigt, dass außerrechtliche Faktoren wie die Immigrationsskepsis in einer Region die individuelle Chance, Schutz zu erhalten, maßgeblich mitbestimmen. Sie weist auch nach, dass muslimische Asylsuchende und Männer mit ihren Gesuchen beim Bundesamt für Migration und Flüchtlinge systematisch geringere Erfolgsaussichten haben.

  • Heermann, Max; Leuffen, Dirk; Tigges, Fabian (2024): Change to Stay the Same? : German European Preference Formation During the COVID-19 Crisis German Politics. Taylor & Francis. 2024, 33(2), S. 411-433. ISSN 0964-4008. eISSN 1743-8993. Verfügbar unter: doi: 10.1080/09644008.2023.2189701

    Change to Stay the Same? : German European Preference Formation During the COVID-19 Crisis

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    In 2020, the German government supported the COVID-19 recovery fund ‘Next Generation EU’, which according to many observers is breaking with the taboo of joint EU debt liability. In this article, we analyse whether this decision marks a programmatic shift towards fiscal integration, taken in isolation by the Chancellor, or whether it can be reconciled with higher-level principles that guided the Chancellor’s previous European policies? Our analysis builds on a synthetic framework combining a multi-level principal-agent account with ideational components. The empirical analysis of Bundestag debates and original public opinion data reveal that the support for ‘Next Generation EU’ neither breaks with the Chancellor’s established ‘conservational-pragmatic’ approach to EU policy-making, nor separates the Chancellor from the preferences of the Bundestag and the public. Content analyses show how the government and its supporting camp in the Bundestag justified the apparent policy shift, underlining a strong agreement towards strengthening the EU in times of an unseen crisis, while at the same time revealing some noteworthy partisan differences.

  • Ahrens, Leo; Bandau, Frank (2024): The electoral consequences of taxation in OECD countries Electoral Studies. Elsevier. 2024, 88, 102774. ISSN 0261-3794. eISSN 1873-6890. Available under: doi: 10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102774

    The electoral consequences of taxation in OECD countries

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    Researchers, politicians, and pundits commonly expect that voters retrospectively punish and reward government parties for tax policies, but there is surprisingly little cross-country evidence that backs this claim. This study provides comprehensive evidence from 30 OECD countries, 1970–2020. It analyzes the electoral fates of government parties that increased or cut taxes on personal incomes and consumption. Our findings confirm the prevalence of electoral consequences, but these depend on the type and direction of tax change. Government parties lose votes when they increase personal income taxes while there is only marginal evidence suggesting electoral reward for income tax increases and electoral consequences after value-added tax changes. The findings also indicate the distributive effects of reforms to matter. The most pronounced consequences arise when governments raise income taxes on the poor. The moderating role of conditional factors such as government partisanship and fiscal pressure are explored, but no consensus emerges from the findings.

  • Dodin, Majed; Findeisen, Sebastian; Henkel, Lukas; Sachs, Dominik; Schüle, Paul (2024): Social mobility in Germany Journal of Public Economics. Elsevier. 2024, 232, 105074. ISSN 0047-2727. eISSN 1879-2316. Verfügbar unter: doi: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2024.105074

    Social mobility in Germany

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    We characterize intergenerational mobility in Germany using census data on educational attainment and parental income for 526,000 children. Motivated by Germany’s tracking system in secondary education, our measure of opportunity is the A-Level degree, a requirement for access to university. A 10 percentile increase in parental income rank is associated with a 5.2 percentage point increase in the A-Level share. This gradient remained unchanged for the birth cohorts 1980–1996, despite a large-scale expansion of upper secondary education. At the regional level, there exists substantial variation in mobility estimates. Local characteristics, rather than sorting patterns, account for most of these differences.

  • Bergmann, Fabian (2024): An efficacious remedy for status inequality? : Indigenous policies in Norway and Sweden Politics, Groups, and Identities. Taylor & Francis. ISSN 2156-5503. eISSN 2156-5511. Available under: doi: 10.1080/21565503.2024.2331726

    Project : ”Ethnic policies” – remedy for between-group inequalities?

    An efficacious remedy for status inequality? : Indigenous policies in Norway and Sweden

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    Most states publicly support the recognition of Indigenous rights. Nevertheless, their domestic policies to address Indigenous rights issues vary considerably across countries. So far, research has not committed itself to investigating the consequences of different Indigenous policies on the peoples concerned and their social status. Do policy contexts that accommodate Indigenous rights firmly contribute to status equality between Indigenous people and the ethnic majority? I study this question in the case of Norway and Sweden. These countries host one Indigenous people – the Sámi – but pursue diverging Indigenous policies. Using new survey data, I show that, despite the absence of material inequalities, there is a clear gap in the social status perceptions between Indigenous and majority respondents in Sweden. In Norway, I do not find that Sámi’s perception of their social position is lower than the majority's. The results suggest that the Swedish policies governing the recognition of Sámi rights are less effective in resolving unequal status perceptions.

  • Die schweigende Mehrheit auf der Straße? : Ergebnisse einer Befragung von Teilnehmer:innen an den Protesten gegen Rechtsextremismus

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    Seit Jahresbeginn 2024 finden deutschlandweit Proteste gegen Rechtsextremismus großen Zulauf. Doch ist es tatsächlich eine „schweigende Mehrheit“, die hier für Demokratie aufsteht? In diesem Policy Paper stellen wir die Ergebnisse einer Befragung dreier Protestveranstaltungen vor und untersuchen die soziodemografische Zusammensetzung, Motivation und Einstellungen der Teilnehmer:innen. Zusammenfassend lässt sich dabei feststellen, dass diese sich zumeist der oberen Mittelschicht zugehörig fühlen, politisch links der Mitte verorten und überdurchschnittlich hohe Bildungsabschlüsse besitzen. Viele haben keine Protesterfahrung und sind in Sorge wegen des Erstarkens der AfD, äußern sich aber differenziert, was den Umgang mit der Partei und ihren Unterstützer:innen anbelangt.

  • Parität, Transparenz, Familienfreundlichkeit : Wie sich der Gender Pay Gap in Deutschland reduzieren ließe

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    Der Gender Pay Gap lag in Deutschland im Jahr 2023 bei 18 Prozent. Damit blieb der Wert im fünften Jahr in Folge unverändert, obwohl Frauen in derselben Zeit zunehmend gut bezahlte Berufe ausübten. Diese anhaltende Lohnlücke zwischen Männern und Frauen wirft Fragen nach Ursachen und Gegenmaßnahmen auf. In diesem Policy Paper analysieren wir die Gehälter von 1.780.008 Erwerbspersonen, um den Einfluss von arbeitsmarktrelevanten Eigenschaften der Arbeitnehmer:innen, den Merkmalen der anstellenden Unternehmen sowie der politischen Rahmenbedingungen auf den Gender Pay Gap zu verstehen. Auf Basis unserer Erkenntnisse formulieren wir Handlungsempfehlungen für Arbeitnehmer:innen, Unternehmen und die Politik, wie sich der Gender Pay Gap effektiv reduzieren ließe.

  • Gundacker, Lidwina; Kosyakova, Yuliya; Schneider, Gerald (2024): How regional attitudes towards immigration shape the chance to obtain asylum : Evidence from Germany Migration Studies. Oxford University Press (OUP). ISSN 2049-5838. eISSN 2049-5846. Available under: doi: 10.1093/migration/mnae002

    How regional attitudes towards immigration shape the chance to obtain asylum : Evidence from Germany

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    Asylum recognition rates in advanced democracies differ not only across states but also vary within them, translating into fluctuating individual chances to obtain protection. Existing studies on the determinants of these regional inequities typically rely on aggregate data. Utilizing a German refugee survey and leveraging a quasi-natural experiment arising from state-based allocation rules tied to national dispersal policies, we test two explanations for the perplexing regional differences. Drawing on principal–agent models of administrative decision-making, we test whether asylum decision-makers consciously or unconsciously comply with regional political preferences between 2015 and 2017 in Germany, one of the major European destination countries for refugee migration. We furthermore explore whether such biased decision-making amplifies in times of organizational stress as suggested by the statistical discrimination theory. Using mixed-effects logistic regressions, our analyses confirm a lower approval probability in regions with more immigration-averse residents or governments. We cannot confirm, however, that this association is mediated by high workloads or large knowledge gaps. Our results thus suggest that regional political biases affect the individual chance of asylum-seekers to obtain protection irrespective of temporal administrative conditions.

  • Raess, Damian; Wagner, Patrick (2024): The "Social Europe" Effect : Does Southern Foreign Direct Investment in Europe Improve Labor Rights in the Global South? International Interactions. Taylor & Francis. 2024, 50(2), pp. 209-242. ISSN 0305-0629. eISSN 1547-7444. Available under: doi: 10.1080/03050629.2024.2310005

    The "Social Europe" Effect : Does Southern Foreign Direct Investment in Europe Improve Labor Rights in the Global South?

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    Trade and foreign direct investment (FDI) relations between developing and developed countries can lead to ratcheting-up of labor standards. Past research, however, has relegated developing countries to a passive role in the global economy while simultaneously largely ignoring variation between developed countries’ degree of protection of labor rights. In this study, we consider FDI by developing countries into Europe and how it can lead to labor upgrading. We argue that the obligations to upgrade implied by Europe’s regulatory environment will pressure developing country firms with strategic asset-seeking FDI to upgrade their practices which can subsequently diffuse in their home countries. We tease out this specific mechanism from others through a comparative research design juxtaposing FDI into high standard social Europe and the relatively low standard United States for a panel of 122 developing countries in the period 2001–2010. Our analysis compares how FDI into each location affects both collective and individual labor rights, finding that FDI into “Social Europe" leads to the improvement of labor standards, particularly trade union rights and substantive rights relating to working conditions, while there is no such upgrading effect for FDI into the United States. These findings are robust to multiple specifications, including an innovative application of the measurement strategy in studies on trading-/investing-up effects. This research helps us to understand two underappreciated facets of this latest phase of globalization: the rise of developing countries as agents of global integration and how regulatory disparities between potential economic partners can affect labor upgrading in those same developing countries. Any weakening of the European social model should consider its external consequences.

  •   31.03.26  
    Scholl, Almuth (2024): The politics of redistribution and sovereign default Journal of International Economics. Elsevier. 2024, 148, 103876. ISSN 0022-1996. eISSN 1873-0353. Available under: doi: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2023.103876

    The politics of redistribution and sovereign default

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    This paper studies how distributional and electoral concerns shape sovereign default incentives within a quantitative model of sovereign debt with heterogeneous agents and non-linear income taxation. The small open economy is characterized by a two-party system in which the left-wing party has a larger preference for redistribution than the right-wing party. Political turnover is the endogenous outcome of the electoral process. Fiscal policy faces a tradeoff: On the one hand, the government has incentives to finance its spending via external debt to avoid distortionary income taxation. On the other hand, the accumulation of external debt raises the cost of borrowing. Quantitative findings suggest that the left-wing party implements a more progressive income tax, is more prone to default, and has a lower electoral support than the right-wing party due to worse borrowing conditions and the distortionary effects of income taxation. In equilibrium, electoral uncertainty raises sovereign default risk.

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