Digitalization, Automation and the Future of Work in Post-Industrial Welfare States
Project Description
Aims and Central Research Question
We aim to understand how politics, society and businesses interact to adapt to the social, economic and political challenges of digitalization and automation. Technological changes are in the process of transforming work as we know it, with important consequences for social inequality.
We investigate to what extent the digital transformation of work is perceived as a threat or opportunity by workers, citizens, policy-makers and businesses. We analyze the demands, expectations and behavior of political actors concerning the regulation of technological change. And we look into their stances with regard to labor market, education, and social policy reforms.
Background
Whether and to what extent the digital economy will qualitatively change labor markets and welfare states is a hotly debated question. The digital transformation will certainly result in large pay-offs. What marks it will leave on social inequality depends on how these pay-offs will be (re-)distributed. We are looking into the political struggles about this distribution, and study the real effects of technological change on the labor market. Furthermore, we are interested in the consequences for policy-making in the domains of education, labor market and social policies.
Methods
Our research design is based on multi-level comparison and makes use of multiple methods: We will
- conduct a survey of public opinion on labor market and social policies;
- analyze how employers’ and employee representatives’ strategies for handling workplace digitalization affect inequalities within businesses and the behavior of individual employees; and
- conduct a series of qualitative case studies based on expert interviews and document analysis to study policy positions of political actors.
To compare different models of capitalism and welfare state regimes, we include a number of countries in our analysis: Germany, Sweden, the U.S., Italy and Estonia.
Disciplines
Political Science, Economics, Sociology, Organizational Studies
Starting Date
1 October 2019 (1 February 2019 for first seed funding phase)
Project Partners
Melanie Arntz (ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research, Mannheim)
Melanie Arntz is deputy of ZEW's Research Department “Labour Markets and Human Resources” and Leibniz Professor of Labour Economics at the University of Heidelberg. Her research focusses on the question how changing labour market conditions such as an increasing digitalization of work tasks and the proceeding international division of production processes affects labour markets and individuals. Find more information about Melanie Arntz here.
Brian Burgoon (University of Amsterdam)
Brian Burgoon is Professor of International and Comparative Political Economy at the University of Amsterdam (UvA). He is also Academic Director of the Amsterdam Institute for Social Science Research (AISSR) at the UvA. He received his PhD from MIT in 1998 and has been on the UvA faculty since 2001. His research focuses on the politics of economic globalization; of welfare and labor-market policies and standards; and of how economic conditions influence political conflict. Find more information about Brian Burgoon here.
Kathleen Thelen (Massachussetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA)
Kathleen Thelen is Ford Professor of Political Science at MIT. Thelen has served as President of the American Political Science Association (APSA), Chair of the Council for European Studies and as President of the Society for the Advancement of Socio-Economics. Thelen is General Editor, along with Eric Wibbels, of the Cambridge University Press Series in Comparative Politics, and a permanent external member of the Max Planck Institut für Gesellschaftsforschung in Cologne, Germany.
Literature
Publications
Lauterbach, Ann Sophia, and Florian Kunze. 2023. “Office Work after the Pandemic: Conventional or Activity-Based Workplaces?” PERSONALquarterly 75 (4): 34–39.
Lauterbach, Ann Sophia, Tobias Tober, Florian Kunze, and Marius R. Busemeyer. 2023. “Can Welfare States Buffer Technostress? Income and Technostress in the Context of Various OECD Countries.” PLOS ONE 18 (12): e0295229. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0295229.
Lauterbach, Ann Sophie, and Florian Kunze. 2023. “A Quasi-Experimental Exploration of Activity-Based Flexible Office Design and Demographic Differences in Employee Absenteeism.” Environment and Behavior 55 (1–2): 47–73. https://doi.org/10.1177/00139165231163549.
Busemeyer, Marius R., and Tobias Tober. 2023. “Dealing with Technological Change: Social Policy Preferences and Institutional Context.” Comparative Political Studies 56 (7): 968–99. https://doi.org/10.1177/00104140221139381.
Busemeyer, Marius R, Mia Gandenberger, Carlo Knotz, and Tobias Tober. 2023. “Preferred Policy Responses to Technological Change: Survey Evidence from OECD Countries.” Socio-Economic Review 21 (1): 593–615. https://doi.org/10.1093/ser/mwac015.
Baccaro, Lucio, and Tobias Tober. 2022. “The Role of Wages in the Eurozone.” Review of International Political Economy 29 (4): 1263–86. https://doi.org/10.1080/09692290.2021.1888143.
Busemeyer, Marius, Sebastian Findeisen, Sebastian Koos, Florian Kunze, and Stephan Maurer. 2022. “Dataset: ‘Risks That Matter’-Survey.” OECD. https://www.oecd.org/social/risks-that-matter.htm#publications.
Busemeyer, Marius R. 2022. “Digitalization, Automation and the Welfare State: What Do We (Not Yet) Know?” In Digitalization and the Welfare State, edited by Marius R. Busemeyer, Achim Kemmerling, Kees Van Kersbergen, and Paul Marx, 21–40. Oxford, New York: Oxford University Press.
Busemeyer, Marius R., and Ulrich Glassmann. 2022. “The Value and Future of Work in the Digital Economy.” In Digitalization and the Welfare State, edited by Marius R. Busemeyer, Achim Kemmerling, Kees Van Kersbergen, and Paul Marx, 83–98. Oxford, New York: Oxford University Press.
Busemeyer, Marius R., Achim Kemmerling, Paul Marx, and Kees van Kersbergen, eds. 2022. Digitalization and the Welfare State. Oxford: Oxford University Press. https://doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780192848369.001.0001.
Busemeyer, Marius R., Achim Kemmerling, Kees Van Kersbergen, and Paul Marx. 2022. “Digitalization and the Future of the Democratic Welfare State.” In Digitalization and the Welfare State, edited by Marius R. Busemeyer, Achim Kemmerling, Kees Van Kersbergen, and Paul Marx, 373–92. Oxford, New York: Oxford University Press.
Busemeyer, Marius R., Achim Kemmerling, Kees Van Kersbergen, and Paul Marx. 2022. “Digitalization and the Welfare State: Introduction.” In Digitalization and the Welfare State, edited by Marius R. Busemeyer, Achim Kemmerling, Kees Van Kersbergen, and Paul Marx, 1–20. Oxford, New York: Oxford University Press.
Busemeyer, Marius R., and Alexander H. J. Sahm. 2022. “Social Investment, Redistribution or Basic Income? : Exploring the Association Between Automation Risk and Welfare State Attitudes in Europe.” Journal of Social Policy 31 (11): 751–70. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0047279421000519.
Busemeyer, Marius R., and Kathleen Thelen. 2022. “Employer Influence in Vocational Education and Training: Germany and Sweden Compared.” In Collective Skill Formation in the Knowledge Economy, edited by Giuliano Bonoli and Patrick Emmenegger, 229–54. Oxford University Press. https://doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780192866257.003.0010.
Dauth, Wolfgang, Sebastian Findeisen, and Jens Suedekum. 2021. “Adjusting to Globalization in Germany.” Journal of Labor Economics 39 (1): 263–302. https://doi.org/10.1086/707356.
Dauth, Wolfgang, Sebastian Findeisen, Jens Suedekum, and Nicole Woessner. 2021. “The Adjustment of Labor Markets to Robots.” Journal of the European Economic Association 19 (6): 3104–53. https://doi.org/10.1093/jeea/jvab012.
Maurer, Stephan E., and Andrei V. Potlogea. 2021. “Male‐biased Demand Shocks and Women’s Labour Force Participation : Evidence from Large Oil Field Discoveries.” Economica 88 (349): 167–88. https://doi.org/10.1111/ecca.12341.
Reinwald, Max, Sophia Zimmermann, and Florian Kunze. 2021. “Working in the Eye of the Pandemic : Local COVID-19 Infections and Daily Employee Engagement.” Frontiers in Psychology 12. https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyg.2021.654126.
Tober, Tobias. 2021. “The Launch of EMU and German Export Interests.” Socio-Economic Review 21 (3): 1657–78. https://doi.org/10.1093/ser/mwab054.
Busemeyer, Marius R., and Tobias Tober. 2021. “Social Compensation, Retraining, Shorter Working Hours? : Citizen’s Social Policy Priorities for the Age of Automation.” No. 08. Policy Papers / Cluster of Excellence “The Politics of Inequality.” https://www.progressives-zentrum.org/social-compensation-retraining-shorter-working-hours-citizens-social-policy-priorities-for-the-age-of-automation/?lang=en.
Kunze, Florian, Kilian Hampel, and Sophia Zimmermann. 2020. “Homeoffice in Der Corona-Krise : Eine Nachhaltige Transformation Der Arbeitswelt?” No. 02. Policy Papers / Cluster of Excellence “The Politics of Inequality.” http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:bsz:352-2-926cp7kvkn359.
Further readings
Arntz, Melanie, Terry Gregory and Ulrich Zierahn. 2016. "The Risk of Automation for Jobs in OECD Countries: A Comparative Analysis." OECD Social, Employment and Migration Working Papers No. 189. Paris: OECD Publishing.
Colin, Nicolas and Bruno Palier. 2015. "The Next Safety Net: Social Policy for a Digital Age." Foreign Affairs 94(4):29-33.
Eichhorst, Werner and Ulf Rinne. 2017. "Digital Challenges for the Welfare State." CESifo Forum 18(4):3-8.
Frey, Carl Benedikt and Michael A Osborne. 2017. "The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation?". Technological Forecasting and Social Change 114:254-80.
Thelen, Kathleen. 2019. "Transitions to the Knowledge Economy in Germany, Sweden, and the Netherlands." Comparative Politics 51(2):295-315.
Thewissen, Stefan and David Rueda. 2019. "Automation and the Welfare State: Technological Change as a Determinant of Redistribution Preferences." Comparative Political Studies 52(2):171-208.